Friday, October 30, 2009

Wild Chances - Games 1 to 10

For those who are unfamiliar with the scoring chance metric, a player is awarded a chance any time someone on the ice has a chance to score. He is awarded a “chance for” if someone on his team has a chance and awarded a “chance against” if someone on the opposing team has a chance to score. The results are broken down into three game states, EV (even strength), PP (Power Play, not including 5v3 situations) and SH (Short-Handed, not including 5v3 situations) and the players are organized according to their jersey numbers. At EV I've also included a scoring chance percentage which is the number of chances for divided by the total number of chances for both teams when any individual player is on the ice. JLikens has been tracking chances for the Minnesota Wild this year and the data that follows is dependent on those results.


The missing game is the October 16th game against the Edmonton Oilers. Although Dennis King is scoring chances for the Oilers and did score that game, I decided to only use JLikens' data here. Having already summed the chances for the Avalanche and Oilers, it's interesting to note that all three teams had a scoring chance percentage between 45 and 46.5. They've all had similar performances in terms of chance volume but I don't need to tell fans of the Wild that it hasn't translated into similar records. Not. Even. Close. The biggest reason for that is the giant gap in save and shooting percentage between the Minnesota and the other two clubs. The Avalanche in particular have been rescued by making their shots (and some shoddy goaltending by teams like the Red Wings) and some top shelf work from Craig Anderson. The Wild, on the other hand had a save percentage under .900 and a shooting percentage well below league norms. If it wasn't for great play on special teams things may have even looked worse. So the percentages should normalize and the Wild should improve. But how much?

Gabe Desjardins points out that over their first nine games the Wild allowed shots that closer to the goalie than any nine game stretch since the lockout. Shot distance is often used as a proxy for shot quality and these chance numbers seem to bear that out. Although we don't have chance numbers for the Wild last season, we do know that their goal and shot differential suggested that they were a pretty good team. So far this season that hasn't been the case. The Wild have done a poor job at even strength generating chances and they've generally been getting outshot as well.

So who's not as bad as he looks? Well, Johnsson and Schultz look terrible by this measure, as they do with most shot differential measures. But as with those other measures these numbers are going to be dependent on things like what kind of opposition you're facing and what end of the rink you're playing in. Last season, coach Jacques Lemaire used that pairing extensively in the defensive zone against the other team's best players. His usage was some of the most extreme in the entire league. I was expecting that to change this year but so far their role is exactly the same, taking many more draws in the defensive end than in the offensive end and taking on the other team's best. It's a virtual guarantee that these guys will be under 50% in scoring chance differential.

And where might the Wild be able to look for hope? I think the Wild need to rely on their best players to be better. Martin Havlat has had a very tough start to the year at EV (43.5%), as has
Mikko Koivu (45.0%). These are by far their two best forwards and two players that have had strong outscoring results against the big guns of the NHL for a number of years. I think it's reasonable to think these two players started the year in a slump and will improve. The addition of Chuck Kobasew will help. The goaltending will improve. Pierre-Marc Bouchard is likely not out for the year. They have more home games left than road games. There are good reasons to think this team can pull themselves back to 50.0% in scoring chance percentage the rest of the way. Will that be enough to get them to the playoffs? Only if lady luck is on their side. Uh oh.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Avalanche v. Oilers - Scoring Chances #12

TmPTimeNoteCOLOpponent
COL119:36Goal82223262741510193571915v5
EDM118:18
525374144541222354143675v5
EDM117:27
1023264152
510273571
4v4
COL117:08
1022232641
535718389
4v4
COL116:07
523262741
10354143

4v3
COL116:05
523262741
10354143

4v3
COL111:21
922273940411019354143915v5
COL15:39
910394041521222354143675v5
COL14:43
822232627412735377783895v5
EDM13:02
518253941441222353741675v5
COL217:31
923262741541027353777
5v4
EDM215:43
91039404152510193571915v5
COL210:55
222527374154527357183895v5
COL29:22
810232641521318354143465v5
COL28:12
518223941451222353767775v5
EDM28:04
518223941451222353767775v5
EDM27:32
537394152
1927357183894v5
EDM26:36
2227373941
1019354677914v5
EDM25:57
526414552
1927357183894v5
COL20:31
810232641521019354143915v5
EDM315:46
2225373941521019354143915v5
COL314:14
182737414445513183546715v5
COL313:18
810232641522735374677895v5
COL311:45
910253941521019353777915v5
COL310:30Goal822232627411222353741675v5
COL37:11
822232627412735377783895v5
EDM35:08
81023262741510193537915v5
EDM34:46
822232627411019353777915v5
EDM33:00
2227374154
1035377783
4v4
COL32:43
1022374154
1027353777
4v4
EDM31:58
810264152
512194191
4v4
COL31:49Goal810264152
512194191
4v4
EDM30:48
2227394154
2735377783894v5


#PlayerEVPPSH
5B. CLARK15:53132:13200:5502
8W. WOLSKI15:02831:23001:1100
9M. DUCHENE16:27312:02100:0000
10K. CUMISKEY17:12841:30001:1100
18B. WILLSIE9:40220:00001:0400
22S. HANNAN18:54940:46002:3402
23M. HEJDUK14:39832:58300:3700
25C. STEWART12:45230:00000:0000
26P. STASTNY16:25942:37300:5001
27K. QUINCEY17:13732:15302:3402
28D. KOCI3:46000:05000:0000
37R. O'REILLY14:14330:59002:0802
39T. GALIARDI16:07440:00002:0103
40M. SVATOS10:45211:11000:0000
41C. ANDERSON51:0416104:00304:4004
44R. WILSON14:05120:00000:0000
45C. DURNO9:01210:00000:0701
52A. FOOTE18:51640:01002:0602
54D. JONES11:52220:29101:2201


PeriodTotalsEVPP5v3 PPSH5v3 SH
1735320000000
2554210000300
3767500000100
4000000000000
Totals1914161030000400

Even though I'm tracking Avalanche chances this year I am a fan of the Oilers so this recap is written with a little bit of shame behind it because the Oilers were bad tonight. Terrible. Really, really terrible. Prior to this game the Avalanche had outchanced their opposition three times in eleven games and only seriously outchanced two opponents at EV: the Minnesota Wild and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Looking at the number of standings points those two teams have accumulated so far this year gives a pretty good indication of how well the Oilers played. There were no Oilers that had really good games. If I was forced to choose I might go with the line of Brule, Jacques and Nilsson who played an okay game. Oh, and for some reason Visnovsky didn't take a shift in the last fifteen minutes. I feel safe assuming that he wasn't benched which leads me to expect something bad has happened. What a terrible evening.

From the Avalanche perspective this was a great showing. Wolski was put back up with Stastny and Hejduk and the three of them were dominant all night, the first time the top line has done that all season. Hannan, Quincey and even Foote all posted good numbers and the team both outchanced and outshot their opponents. If there's one thing to say to detractors of the Avalanche who look at the shot totals and wonder about sustainability it's the manner in which the Avalanche have dispensed with some of the weaker clubs. This game and the games against Toronto and Carolina demonstrate that the Avalanche are certainly capable of stomping a mud-hole in inferior opponents which puts them a step up on those clubs for sure. There's still some more work to go before they're on par with the West's best teams but the Avalanche are certainly better than my 14th place pre-season projection.

Finally, I can't believe that Ruutu was suspended for his hit on Darcy Tucker. In tonight's game there were two instances where the Avalanche player delivered a hit from behind to an Oiler and no call was made. It's a dirty play and should be a penalty but as often as not it gets overlooked. In both instances the puck was in the immediate vicinity of the player being hit so it's not as though the refs didn't see the play, they just accept it as part of the game. You know, unless someone gets carted off on a stretcher. Then it's a major penalty and a three game suspension. What a strange league.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Avalanche v. Red Wings - Scoring Chances #11

TmPTimeNoteCOLOpponent
DET114:32
102326415254513354055965v5
COL111:07
102627404154513354052965v5
DET110:15
822252737411122333544525v5
DET18:19
89104041522123282935515v5
DET15:19
2227373941
513283540964v5
DET14:40
2227374154
513283540964v5
DET14:24
510373941
1121293551554v5
DET13:37
2227373941
1121293551554v5
DET12:48
523415254
513283540964v5
COL10:38
92326274041518233543
5v4
DET219:31
923262740411123355152
5v4
COL217:53
5825262741513354355
5v4
DET216:59
2223262741541128333544525v5
DET216:53Goal2223262741541128333544525v5
DET212:08
1037394152
1129354451554v5
DET211:54
1037394152
1129354451554v5
DET211:46
1037394152
1129354451554v5
DET211:39
1037394152
1129354451554v5
COL210:52
2223262741541323354052965v5
COL25:35Goal1025373941522128293551525v5
DET24:00
525373941441123283335445v5
DET23:10
537394152
513283540964v5
DET21:49
1023374152
513283540964v5
DET21:36
91023374152513283540965v5
COL20:39
58264144542123293551525v5
COL319:23
923262740411123355152
5v4
COL319:14
923262740411123355152
5v4
COL319:06
923262740411123355152
5v4
DET316:56
722273940411322283540965v5
DET314:35
222527373941511333544555v5
DET311:06
910234152542229354451525v5
COL310:41Goal1025373941522229354451525v5
DET37:25
2223262741541323283540965v5
DET36:44
2223274154
1129354044554v5
COL31:00Goal222326273741513212851965v5
DET30:24
222326274154521282935515v5
DET30:22
222326274154521282944515v5


#PlayerEVPPSH
5B. CLARK12:57113:03104:1603
7T. HENSICK7:38010:00000:0000
8W. WOLSKI13:40123:21101:0600
9M. DUCHENE11:37032:39410:3800
10K. CUMISKEY10:41342:17002:5606
15M. HENDRICKS1:45000:00000:0000
22S. HANNAN14:58280:00006:1804
23M. HEJDUK13:17283:06412:5203
25C. STEWART10:27232:54100:0000
26P. STASTNY14:36463:27512:3200
27K. QUINCEY15:50383:43517:4504
28D. KOCI4:46000:00000:0000
37R. O'REILLY8:28342:33009:09010
39T. GALIARDI9:22230:00009:0308
40M. SVATOS9:29122:39410:0200
41C. ANDERSON39:446136:005114:13012
44R. WILSON13:23110:00000:0200
52A. FOOTE11:41240:18007:0907
54D. JONES14:05370:00003:0403


PeriodTotalsEVPP5v3 PPSH5v3 SH
1281310000500
24113411000600
3572630000100
4000000000000
Totals1126613510001200


Well what can you say here other than sometimes the best team just doesn't win. The Avalanche created six even strength chances, eleven overall, and they won the game. For the second time against Detroit the winning goal saw the Detroit netminder lose his net and misplay the angle on a shot that probably should have been stopped. The Bertuzzi goal that was called off in the second period was a terrible call as well (but it couldn't have happened to a nicer guy). The refs seemed to realize the injustice that was a Detroit loss in this one and found a way to call Scott Hannan for a penalty after a hilariously obvious dive from Tomas Holmstrom. I'll say it again: the first referee that regularly calls diving penalties is my new favourite. At any rate, after looking tremendous on the PP in the first period, the Wings did nothing at all with that power play or the one that followed when Paul Stastny was called for tripping. It was during this penalty kill that my favourite sequence of the game occurred along the boards. David Jones trapped the puck along the wall and ended up killing what seemed like half a minute there with some help from Foote and Clark. That kind of hard work and willingness to take abuse to preserve a victory are always fantastic to see.

As for the Wings longer term, from what I've seen they should be fine. The start to the season has probably been good for them. They have the same weakness as last year (goaltending) but, unlike last year, they haven't been able to outscore their problem. Maybe this will finally convince them to go out and get someone who has a decent track record over the last couple of regular seasons. They knew there was a need and didn't address it. Why didn't they re-sign Ty Conklin or pick up, oh I don't know, Craig Anderson? When the market left Marty Biron available on the cheap, why didn't they take advantage? It was a terrible blunder in the summer but there's still plenty of time for the Wings to recover. I expect they will.


All of the top players on the Avalanche got bombed at EV. Hejduk, Stastny, Jones, Hannan and Quincey all finished -2 or worse (some of them much worse). The Wings controlled almost the entire game against the Avs big guns and despite their record the two head-to-head matches with the Wings and the game with the Hawks have shown that the Avs are going to need some reinforcements in order to win regularly against the best teams in the Western Conference. But at the beginning of the year, who thought that would be a concern? The fact that it's something worth considering is a victory in and of itself after the year the Avs had last season.