tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-786169163374631693.post8024079061804209931..comments2023-10-11T03:58:48.429-07:00Comments on Gospel of Hockey: Why EV Shot Quality MattersScott Reynoldshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05735545121522530577noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-786169163374631693.post-62086363006366639692009-08-24T10:38:27.509-07:002009-08-24T10:38:27.509-07:00Hey Patrick,
Check your email...Hey Patrick,<br /><br />Check your email...Coach pb9617https://www.blogger.com/profile/05868922507861734194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-786169163374631693.post-5043252778551096752009-07-31T05:24:29.370-07:002009-07-31T05:24:29.370-07:00Thanks JLikens. I agree that special teams is a v...Thanks JLikens. I agree that special teams is a very important place to look with regard to differences in shot quality. Teams that take fewer penalties should, of course, face easier shots.<br /><br />With that said, I still think that EV shot quality exists, only that it largely results from luck and not skill. So even if we expect the shots to scoring chances ratio at EV to be very similar from team to team, it would still be useful to identify which goaltenders, in any particular season, had an unusually high or unusually low number of scoring chances to shots. And it's bound to happen. I'm just not sure that the current metrics are doing it that well. If we were able to count more scoring chance numbers, we could test this idea going forward.Scott Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05735545121522530577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-786169163374631693.post-60201259979132391242009-07-29T21:41:37.678-07:002009-07-29T21:41:37.678-07:00Good post -- That's a creative way to test the...Good post -- That's a creative way to test the model.<br /><br />I did some analysis on shot quality data -- specifically, that contained in Alan Ryder's work at hockey analytics -- when I first started blogging back in the fall.<br /><br />While both shot quality for and shot quality against correlated with shooting and save percentage (respectively), the correlations were not large (r=~0.4). <br /><br />Interestingly, the metric was fairly repeatable across seasons at the team level (r=~0.6), even with the arena recording bias accounted for. <br /><br />In light of the recent studies that have cast doubt on the importance of shot quality at EV (this one included), I think that the focus needs to shift to special teams factors in terms of explaining team-to-team variation in shot quality. <br /><br />Personally, I think that penalty differential (which is repeatable at the team level) is one big factor. <br /><br />Also, there's some evidence that shooting percentage on special teams is less subject to randomness than at EV (for example, PP S% is more reliable than EV S%, and Vic has shown that team factors are relevant with respect to PK SV%).JLikenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com