Avalanche v. Penguins - Scoring Chances #30

Tm	P	Time	Note	COL						Opponent
PIT	1	19:34		4	5	9	25	26	31	11	17	29	44	48	55	5v5
COL	1	14:59	Goal	4	5	8	16	31	39	7	11	27	29	74		5v4
PIT	1	13:58		9	22	25	26	27	31	9	26	29	55	58	71	5v5
COL	1	10:15		9	25	26	31	44	52	12	27	28	29	44	55	5v5
PIT	1	8:16		8	15	22	23	27	31	9	17	26	29	44	55	5v5
COL	1	7:54		4	5	8	23	31	39	9	17	26	29	44	55	5v5
PIT	1	7:04		9	25	26	31	44	52	7	11	27	29	48	58	5v5
COL	1	3:37		9	22	25	26	27	31	11	12	28	29	58	74	5v5
PIT	1	1:32		5	8	31	37	52		13	29	55	58	71	87	4v5
PIT	1	1:16		5	26	31	39	52		11	26	29	48	55	58	4v5
PIT	1	1:10		5	26	31	39	52		11	26	29	48	55	58	4v5
PIT	1	0:07	Goal	5	9	23	26	31	52	7	17	29	41	71	87	5v5
PIT	2	19:43		9	22	25	26	27	31	11	17	29	44	48	55	5v5
PIT	2	18:32		4	5	8	23	31	39	7	9	26	29	41	71	5v5
COL	2	16:08		9	25	26	31	44	52	11	17	29	44	48	55	5v5
PIT	2	14:51		9	22	25	26	27	31	7	9	26	29	41	71	5v5
COL	2	11:47		4	5	8	16	31	39	11	25	29	55	74		5v4
COL	2	4:10		22	23	27	31	39	40	7	13	26	29	41	87	5v5
COL	2	2:30		4	5	16	31	37	55	9	29	44	48	55	71	5v5
PIT	2	0:23		9	22	25	26	27	31	11	27	29	44	55	71	5v5
PIT	2	0:05		5	23	31	37	39	52	17	29	44	55	71	87	5v5
PIT	3	19:18		9	22	25	26	27	31	11	17	29	44	48	55	5v5
PIT	3	18:46		8	23	31	39	44	52	7	13	25	29	41	87	5v5
COL	3	18:00		4	5	16	31	37	55	9	26	29	58	71	74	5v5
PIT	3	15:27		4	5	8	23	31	39	11	25	29	44	48	55	5v5
PIT	3	14:51		26	31	37	44	52	55	7	13	25	41	71	87	5v5
PIT	3	13:02		22	26	27	31			11	13	29	55	71	87	3v5
PIT	3	12:46	Goal	22	27	31	39			11	13	29	55	71	87	3v5
PIT	3	9:17		15	31	44	45	52	55	9	13	29	58	74	87	5v5
PIT	3	3:24		8	23	27	31	37	44	13	17	29	44	55	87	5v5
PIT	3	2:07		8	22	23	27	31	39	7	26	27	29	58	71	5v5
PIT	3	0:50	Goal	4	5	9	23	25	26	11	13	25	29	44	55	5v5
PIT	3	0:32	Goal	8	9	23	25	26	27	7	11	29	58	71	87	5v5

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
4	J. LILES	15:10	3	4	3:05	2	0	0:00	0	0
5	B. CLARK	13:03	3	6	2:12	2	0	2:09	0	3
8	W. WOLSKI	15:33	1	7	2:51	2	0	2:13	0	1
9	M. DUCHENE	15:58	3	10	2:52	0	0	0:00	0	0
15	M. HENDRICKS	5:46	0	2	0:00	0	0	0:45	0	0
16	D. TUCKER	9:02	2	0	3:03	2	0	0:00	0	0
22	S. HANNAN	16:46	2	7	0:13	0	0	3:18	0	0
23	M. HEJDUK	16:29	2	10	2:28	0	0	0:04	0	0
25	C. STEWART	17:09	3	9	2:37	0	0	0:00	0	0
26	P. STASTNY	16:49	3	11	3:01	0	0	2:24	0	2
27	K. QUINCEY	17:36	2	9	3:31	0	0	3:01	0	0
31	P. BUDAJ	47:23	7	17	5:43	2	0	5:27	0	3
37	R. O'REILLY	13:26	2	3	0:00	0	0	1:58	0	1
39	T. GALIARDI	14:13	2	5	2:42	2	0	2:44	0	2
40	M. SVATOS	5:48	1	0	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
44	R. WILSON	16:28	2	5	0:00	0	0	0:44	0	0
45	C. DURNO	5:09	0	1	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
52	A. FOOTE	17:09	2	6	0:00	0	0	1:43	0	3
55	C. MCLEOD	10:33	2	2	0:00	0	0	0:45	0	0

Period	Totals		EV		PP		5v3 PP		SH		5v3 SH
1	4	8	3	5	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0
2	4	5	3	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	1	11	1	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	9	24	7	19	2	0	0	0	0	3	0	2

Back to back games are hard. The first period was probably better than the 4-8 chance total indicates and things were close in the second as well but that 1-11 total in the third period was full value - the Avs got destroyed. Craig Anderson didn't play but the Avalanche got an amazing effort from Peter Budaj who allowed only two goals (the last two were empty-netters) on 22 chances and both goals he allowed were of the "no chance" variety. Hockey is a funny game though. The Avalanche had a goal disallowed in the second period off a very quick whistle by the referee, one of those whistles where it's the original shot that squeezes through and goes in but the play was inexplicably called dead. Given the way Budaj was playing, that non-goal may well have cost the Avs at least one point.

The two Penguins goals were both beautiful plays involving Sidney Crosby. On the first goal Crosby and Mike Rupp were playing a 2-on-1 against Adam Foote. Crosby started with the puck and waited for Foote to commit at which point he passed across to Rupp who then returned it to Crosby for a wide open net. If you're defending a 2-on-1 you really can't allow your opponents to make TWO passes across. The second was with the Penguins on a 5v3 power play (terrible "canopener" from Brett Clark on Evgeni Malkin lead to the 5v3). Crosby had the puck and he froze both the defender and the goalie by faking a shot and then slid a pass across to "Billy" Guerin (he must be feeling old to have asked to be announced on the PA as "Billy") who then deposited it into the open net. Crosby ended the game a +6 in EV chances (+7-1) and generally looked like the best player on the ice. I noticed him out there a lot against Ryan O'Reilly (there was one play where he was in stride and just pushed O'Reilly down as he skated past him) who ended the night -3 against Crosby but only -1 overall. I know Sacco didn't exactly have his choice of matchups, but that's a role he's given O'Reilly at times this year (go out and check the best players) which is a lot of responsibility for an 18-year-old in this league. Even though he's not doing badly in the role I fully expect the Avalanche to add a veteran center that can win faceoffs and has some history of success in tough matchups as the season progresses.

Oilers v. Penguins - Melody of McGuire 5:2-8

Last night I was asleep,
but my heart was awake!
Listen! I heard him! And I spoke aloud:
"Score for me my countryman, my Olympic captain,
my El-Kabong, my flawless one!"
My head was drenched with sweat,
my hand with the wetness of the night.

See Also:
Oilers v. Penguins - Melody of McGuire 5:10-16

Congratulations to the Pittsburgh Penguins

(Notable exception: Matt Cooke)

I'm one of those guys that hoped Detorit would win the Cup. I predicted them to win (and I like being right) so that was certainly part of it. I also like the fact that for Marian Hossa his main goal was to win the Stanley Cup. More than money, more than living in a nice city, more than being "the guy" he wanted a chance to win the Cup. Now he's not the only that isn't getting what he wants in this life, but I still feel badly for him. If Max Talbot actually looked him in the eye and said "You chose the wrong team" then he is one heartless Quebecor. If not, maybe Hossa goes back to Pittsburgh next year?

Anyway, some fond Oiler memories of the Cup winners:

Bill Guerin - May 4, 1998 - The Oilers come back from a 3-1 series deficit to take the series. Bill Guerin scores one of four goals in a 4-0 walk for the Oilers in Colorado. Guerin ended up with seven goals in two rounds that year, his first with the Oilers. I was in grade nine this year and it was this era (1997-2006) that shaped me as an Oiler fan. Thanks for the memories Bill. It was great to see you lift the Cup.

Miroslav Satan - March 18, 1997 - On this day the Oilers traded Satan to Buffalo for Craig Millar and Drew Bannister. The two defencemen (if you didn't know they were both defencemen you have a great idea about the value the Oilers got in this trade) played a combined 71 games for the Oilers over the next three seasons. As someone that was constantly bombarded with the image of Glen Sather as a hockey genius Miroslav Satan always stood out as the counter-example of all counter-examples. Miroslav, for taking your lumps and going to the minors without complaint, for blocking shots last night, and for helping me to learn critical thinking skills as a young man, I salute you. Keep on partying Miro.

Petr Sykora - October 5, 2006 - Two goals and an assist in a 3-1 win over Calgary on the first day of the 2006-07 season. Oiler fans had no idea the disaster that was to come and on this night we gathered to celebrate. Thanks for the good memories Petr, that season didn't have many. Apparently Sykora even considered staying in Edmonton after the gong show stretch run. Eventually he decided on a much better option. A bit player on the Pens this year but he felt the joy of lifting the Cup again.

Mathieu Garon - March 2, 2008 - This was the last of his shoot-out wins in the hilarious 2007-08 season. Garon stopped all three Columbus shots, which was pretty much par for the course. I know the idea of a "closer" hasn't really taken a foothold but I'd be tempted to try it with Garon. This year must have been awful. At the end of last year he looked like he was in line for a starting job with the Edmonton Oilers over the long term. That's gone now and that kind of sucks. But hey, at least he won himself a Stanley. Sorry the coaches here didn't trust you Mathieu. Maybe you're 100% save percentage in the playoffs will reestablish your value! Seriously though, I'm happy for him. A great end to a tough season.

Oh, and the reason the Red Wings lost this year was bad karma, or, conkma, as the case may be. Ohmygoodness. Oh. My. Goodness.

Flow of Play

So I've been thinking about a way to contribute to the knowledge base here next year (and perhaps a bit during the summer depending on the availability of video) and decided that it would be a good thing to track the flow of play for at least some (and perhaps all) of the Oiler games next season, depending on how interested folks are in that kind of data. I haven't tracked zone time here because I thought that I might be able to do something a little bit easier that would still be helpful. It looks reasonable to me, but I think actual zone time is probably better. Nonetheless, here are the criteria that I used in tracking the first period of Game 5 between the Wings and Pens:

1. At the start of the game the puck is considered in the defensive zone of the road team.
2. The puck is considered as entering the other team's zone when it has been there for five seconds or if a faceoff causes the puck to changes zones (icing call, penalty call) or if a goal is scored.
3. The puck is always considered in the zone of one team or another.

This was supposed to offer a mix of puck position and puck possession and give an indication of which team was carrying the play. I do think it does that, but I also think we lose something but not having any "neutral zone" time and not giving the opposing team credit for clearing it out of their zone. Anyway, I'll put up the results so that we can at least have a preliminary look:

Even Strength:
Puck in "Detroit D Zone" - 9:01
Puck in "Pittsburgh D Zone" - 8:38
Time in zone before Detroit Goal - 0:03

Pittsburgh on Power Play
Puck in "Detroit D Zone" - 0:50
Puck in "Pittsburgh D Zone" - 1:10

Detroit on Power Play
Puck in "Detroit D Zone" - 0:16
Puck in "Pittsburgh D Zone" - 0:05

I think there's real potential for the data. We could potentially answer questions like, "Is Corsi a good proxy for zone time?" or "How many goals scored off the rush?" The main reason for this post is to ask the community (and mostly Vic... the link to time on ice is to make sure he reads it... heh...) some questions. Is this something people would like tracked (either in this simpler version or actual zone time)? In that I actually have all of the precise times noted would it be possible for me to submit those into a shift chart so we could see how individual players are doing (Vic?)? Anyway, feedback is most welcome.

Whitney traded for Kunitz/Tangradi

This trade has some (cap) problems for both teams. I think that the key piece involved in the trade is prospect Eric Tangradi. There is a good chance that he can play for the Pittsburgh Penguins within two years. Some comparable players have ended up with very successful NHL careers, others not, but he may well be able to outperform his entry-level contract.

That’s going to be a mighty important thing for Pittsburgh. Shero has, with good reason (see the analysis of the trade by Jonathan Willis), soured on Whitney as an all-around defenceman, but he’s moved a lot of money from one asset class to another. By taking virtually all of the 4M in cap dollars invested in Whitney and putting it into Kunitz the Penguins now have just over 25M tied up in 4 forwards. They're also locked in to an absolute minimum of 5.5M for two goalies because of the Marc-Andre Fleury deal. If the cap moves down to around 50M in the next couple of years that only leaves 19.5M for 7D and 9F. If they aren’t able to move Staal they are going to have a terrible time trying to find some quality on defence. If I was moving Whitney, I would have made sure that I wasn't taking long-term salary back, especially at forward. If Tangradi is more Stone than Cheechoo this is a big loss for the Penguins.

As for the Ducks, the deal depends on whether or not Whitney rounds out his game. It’s not a bet I would be making but it does seem to have some chance of working out and, at the very least, this move looks to have a long-term plan in mind. One of Niedermayer or Pronger will be leaving soon and Whitney is, I assume, being groomed as a(n inadequate) replacement.

Oilers v. Penguins - Melody of McGuire 5:10-16

My Crosby is radiant and ruddy,
outstanding among ten thousand men.

His head is purest gold,
his hair is sweaty and brown as a MONSTER.

His vision is that of the Great One
reborn for a new generation,
passes like silk,
tape to tape like jewels.

His goals are like beds of spice
yielding perfume.
His goals are like the sweetest of peaches
dripping with flavour.

His sticks are rods of gold
manipulated by the softest of hands.
His blades are polished ivory
manoeuvred by the quickest of feet.

His strong powerful legs are pillars of marble
set on bases of pure gold.
His appearance is like the Rocky Mountains,
awing mortal men with his grandeur.

His interviews are sweetness itself;
he is altogether lovely.

This is my Crosby, this my lo... friend.