Savard signs with Boston

According to TSN the Boston Bruins have signed Marc Savard to a seven-year deal worth 4.2M per season. When the Bruins traded Chuck Kobasew to the Minnesota Wild I remarked that the deal was a win for the Bruins if they were then able to sign Savard to an affordable contract extension and this one fits the bill. I was estimating he'd get about 5.5M per season but I was expecting something closer to a three-year deal. And there's the rub. Savard is going to be getting paid for his 33 through 39 year-old seasons and the number of players who can be $4M+ contributors on the wrong end of 35 is pretty small. Before this contract is over it seems very likely that Savard will have already started his decline. Of course, by the time Savard starts his decline, who knows if contracts will be guaranteed, what the buy-out procedures will be or where the salary cap might stand. I don't think NHL general managers do. As such , I think it's best to evaluate this kind of deal over the short-to-medium term and in that light this is a great deal. 4.2M against the cap for a center who has put up over a point per game in each of the last four seasons is just fantastic. When it comes to the medium-to-long term NHL general managers are largely flying blind but even if the contract rules stay pretty similar in the next CBA and the salary cap doesn't experience large inflation over the course of the deal - and I imagine that the salary cap will rise significantly and that it will become easier to get out of contracts after the next CBA negotiations - this deal has several outs (it's not a 35+ contract, it's likely front-loaded making Savard a good candidate for trade, buy-out or retirement) that will help to make it work if Savard's play falls off.

Oilers v. Bruins - 3 John 1-14

Rick Ley, to my good friend Pat whom I love. My good old friend, I pray that you might retain your good health and that your gum will relieve all of the stress imposed upon you by your young and foolish team (who I have come to greatly admire). It gives me great joy to know that you are still faithful to the truth and to the ancient tradition of rolling lines. There is no greater joy than seeing the bottom pairing defenders taking shifts in the third period!

Kobasew traded to Minnesota for Cap Room

So, Chuck Kobasew has been traded from the Boston Bruins to the Minnesota Wild:

To Boston:
Craig Weller
Alexander Fallstrom
2nd round pick in 2011

To Minnesota:
Chuck Kobasew

From Boston's perspective the intent is obvious. Kobasew is a good player that will make 2.33M both this season and next. The focus for them was on the salary, not the ability. Including Kobasew the Bruins had already committed over 42M to 12 players for next season with a bunch of important cogs still left to re-sign including Marc Savard, Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ference and Mark Stuart. Savard alone will likely cost 5.5M at minimum which would have left them at 47.5M with another 8 players to sign to fill a 21-man roster. If the cap declined even slightly, say 55M, it would have left the Bruins just under 1M per player, again, assuming a 21-man roster. Kobasew's departure was made necessary largely because of these cap concerns which only increased when the Bruins decided to give Milan Lucic an overly generous contract extension. Losing 2.33M against the cap gives the Bruins a bit more wiggle room as it reduces the Bruins cap number to about 45.5M after a Savard extension of around 5.5M per year. That leaves them just over 1M per player assuming a 21-man roster and gives them a legitimate chance at signing guys like Ference and Stuart to contract extensions.

As for the non-cap return, Craig Weller is a money-saving dump by the Wild. He's on a one-way deal and is playing in the minors. After the deal Boston called up three players and Weller wasn't one of them (Sobotka, Marchand and Lefebvre). Fallstrom is a big high schooler taken in this past year's entry draft who will be playing at Harvard this year. He was probably the guy the Bruins took off Minnesota's "B" or "C" prospect list. It's likely that he won't amount to much but you never do know. The second round pick is a lottery ticket that looks pretty likely to be in the top fifty and is the most valuable piece in the deal by a mile. I'm actually quite impressed that the Bruins were able to get as much value as they did out of a salary dump. I imagine they were able to increase the value of the pick for their willingness to pay Weller to play in the AHL.

Minnesota clearly wanted Kobasew. As I mentioned earlier, he wasn't an important cog in the Bruins machine. He ranked 8th in quality of competition last season but had one of the most unfavourable starting situations on the Bruins (200 offensive zone faceoffs vs. 247 defensive zone faceoffs). He also logged the 4th most ice time per game among Bruin forwards at even strength. Of Kobasew's 42 points, 33 came at even strength which is a pretty good number. His performance in 2007-08 was very similar across the board, though Kobasew did take on a slightly more difficult competition with a slightly better starting position ratio. Although Kobasew is off to a rough start to the season, he should make the Wild a better team this year, especially at even strength. Since the Wild have most of their top guns signed to affordable deals heading into next year they can also afford this contract without a problem. It reduces the amount that they have to spend in free agency this summer but it also gives them a chance to improve immediately which a first year GM with a 1-5 record might feel compelled to do.

It's a strange world where the Wild end up a better hockey team, the Bruins a worse one and yet the deal makes sense for both teams. If Boston re-signs Savard to an affordable contract without shedding more salary this deal is a win for them. For Minnesota this deal is a win so long as Kobasew's performance doesn't fall off a cliff. Considering he's in the prime of his career (28) there should be very little chance of that happening.

Avalanche v. Bruins - Scoring Chances #5

Tm	P	Time	Note	COL						Opponent
BOS	1	18:58		4	8	23	26	41	52	16	17	21	40	45	91	5v5
COL	1	18:52		4	37	41	52	54	55	16	17	21	40	45	91	5v5
COL	1	17:40		5	9	10	16	40	41	26	40	46	48	55	73	5v5
BOS	1	17:08		5	9	10	16	40	41	21	26	40	45	46	73	5v5
BOS	1	17:05		5	9	10	16	40	41	21	26	40	45	46	73	5v5
BOS	1	14:57		9	16	22	27	40	41	16	17	40	48	55	91	5v5
COL	1	14:27		4	37	41	52	54	55	26	40	46	48	55	73	5v5
COL	1	13:46	Goal	4	9	23	26	27	41	27	33	40	53	61		5v4
COL	1	13:09	Goal	22	37	41	52	54	55	16	17	21	40	45	91	5v5
BOS	1	8:33		5	26	39	41	52		16	33	40	53	73	91	4v5
BOS	1	5:54		9	16	22	27	40	41	16	17	40	48	55	91	5v5
BOS	1	4:43		5	41	52	54	55		21	28	40	46	55	91	4v5
BOS	1	3:48		5	10	16	23	26	41	21	28	37	40	46	55	5v5
BOS	2	15:28		4	9	16	40	41	52	16	17	21	40	48	91	5v5
BOS	2	15:27		4	9	16	40	41	52	16	17	21	40	48	91	5v5
BOS	2	12:16	Goal	4	8	9	40	41	52	12	28	33	37	40	55	5v5
BOS	2	10:44		4	37	41	52	54	55	16	17	21	40	45	91	5v5
BOS	2	10:42		4	37	41	52	54	55	16	17	21	40	45	91	5v5
BOS	2	9:47	Goal	15	22	27	28	39	41	26	40	46	48	55	73	5v5
COL	2	9:23		8	22	23	26	27	41	12	28	33	37	40	53	5v5
COL	2	9:06		5	8	22	23	26	41	12	28	33	37	40	53	5v5
COL	2	6:30	Goal	5	8	10	16	40	41	26	40	46	48	55		5v4
COL	2	5:11		4	9	23	26	27	41	12	21	37	40	45		5v4
COL	2	4:36		4	9	23	26	27	41	12	33	37	40	55		5v4
BOS	2	3:22		5	10	39	41	54		21	26	40	46	48	53	4v5
COL	2	3:11	Goal	5	10	39	41	54		16	21	40	48	73	91	4v5
BOS	2	2:41		4	37	41	52	55		16	33	40	53	73	91	4v5
COL	2	1:55		8	22	23	26	27	41	17	21	28	33	40	91	5v5
BOS	3	18:06		4	15	39	41	52	54	26	40	46	48	55	73	5v5
BOS	3	13:39		4	37	41	52	54	55	17	21	40	45	46	73	5v5
BOS	3	13:37	Goal	4	37	41	52	54	55	17	21	40	45	46	73	5v5
BOS	3	12:01		9	10	16	40	41	52	16	17	40	48	55	91	5v5
BOS	3	9:33		4	22	39	41	54	55	12	28	33	37	40	53	5v5
BOS	3	5:47		15	22	27	39	40	41	17	33	40	46	53	73	5v5
BOS	3	5:31		15	22	27	39	40	41	16	17	33	40	53	91	5v5

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
4	J. LILES	17:35	2	10	2:16	3	0	0:33	0	1
5	B. CLARK	13:20	2	3	1:37	1	0	2:39	1	3
8	W. WOLSKI	14:02	3	2	1:37	1	0	0:04	0	0
9	M. DUCHENE	12:29	1	8	2:16	3	0	0:23	0	0
10	K. CUMISKEY	10:33	1	4	1:37	1	0	0:25	1	1
15	M. HENDRICKS	7:44	0	4	0:00	0	0	0:32	0	0
16	D. TUCKER	12:28	1	8	1:37	1	0	0:00	0	0
22	S. HANNAN	17:55	4	6	0:00	0	0	5:52	0	0
23	M. HEJDUK	15:14	3	2	2:16	3	0	1:35	0	0
26	P. STASTNY	14:02	3	2	2:16	3	0	2:47	0	1
27	K. QUINCEY	14:37	2	5	2:16	3	0	5:31	0	0
28	D. KOCI	3:35	0	1	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
37	R. O'REILLY	12:03	3	4	0:00	0	0	3:15	0	1
39	T. GALIARDI	11:23	0	5	0:00	0	0	4:59	1	2
40	M. SVATOS	10:35	1	10	1:37	1	0	0:00	0	0
41	C. ANDERSON	46:22	7	19	3:53	4	0	9:20	1	4
52	A. FOOTE	19:34	3	10	0:00	0	0	3:40	0	3
54	D. JONES	14:15	3	6	0:00	0	0	2:51	1	2
55	C. MCLEOD	12:16	3	5	0:00	0	0	2:14	0	2

Period	Totals		EV		PP		5v3 PP		SH		5v3 SH
1	5	8	4	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0
2	7	8	3	6	3	0	0	0	1	2	0	0
3	0	7	0	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	12	23	7	19	4	0	0	0	1	4	0	0

This was a very interesting game from the Avalanche. On the good side of the ledger, the first line had their best game at EV with all of Hejduk, Stastny and Wolski creating more than they were giving back for the first time. The Avalanche special teams were also once again very good. The Avalanche scored two power play goals and created over one chance per minute while holding the Bruins to four chances in over nine minutes on the power play as well as recording one shorthanded goal. This was really driven home in the third period when Stastny was called for interference with only five minutes to go when the Avalanche were having one of their rare third period shifts in the offensive zone. This was a bad call, the kind of call you expect to change the outcome of the game. And it did. As I said, the Avalanche had been dominant, pouring on the pressure for the entire period but once Colorado was able to relax into their PK system the Bruins couldn't muster any good chances to score. I don't have them generating even one solid chance after that penalty call.

As for the bad side, there were a few players that got shelled with the Duchene-Tucker-Svatos group leading the way. As a team the Avalanche were outchanced badly in this game whenever they took the lead. From the time they took the 2-0 lead in the first period to the time of the Bruins second goal to tie the game the Avalanche were outchanced 10-0 in just over twenty minutes of action. The Avalanche were then able to pick themselves up and re-establish a 4-2 lead heading into the third period. In that third period they were outchanced 7-0. There were two twenty minute sections where the Avalanche didn't generate a single chance! Unfortunately for the Avalanche this has been a pretty consistent problem. Considering the amount of time they spend in their own zone when they use this strategy it's amazing to me that the opposition doesn't get more chances. For example, although the Bruins didn't generate any significant chances in the last five minutes of the game those five minutes were spent either in the defensive zone or with the Bruins in control of the puck. It's just scary. The decision to take such a passive stance cost them the game against Nashville and caused them to be outchanced by a wide margin in the third period against San Jose and in this game. It's all well and good to protect your lead but you probably shouldn't do it by generating, quite literally, nothing for huge sections of the game.

Morris vs. Ward

Well... I was wrong. The Boston Bruins have signed defenceman Derek Morris to a one year contract worth 3.3M, which is 0.8M more than they were planning on paying Aaron Ward. Realistically, Morris isn't going to be getting big PP time with the Bruins since both of the incumbents on the first unit (Chara and Wideman) will still be there next season. Similarly, Morris will probably be expected to fill in for Ward on the second PK unit. As such, each of them would be contributing to the Bruins primarily at even strength. Here are what the two players have done over the last two seasons:


Now, Ward was playing in a superior team context and that's for sure. Ward's latest year looks particularly good but he played most of the year with the guy that won the Norris trophy so you'd kind of expect his "on-ice" stats to shine. Still, Ward put up two solid seasons in the top four in a row. In both years he led Boston defenders in defensive-offensive zone faceoffs and he wasn't ever getting the easiest competition so I think it's fair to say that Ward was taking on the tough minutes and doing well. The biggest downside is that he missed some time from injury in both seasons and as an older defenceman, his time for a serious decline is probably coming soon.

Morris, meanwhile, had one good season in Phoenix and one poor one. In 2007-08 Morris was taking on the tough minutes both in terms of quality of competition and in terms of defensive zone starts. Although he was mugged territorially (on a team with a ton of young forwards) he did get the puck moving in the right direction for the folks that hopped over the boards after him on many nights. The fact that his role changed so much the next year is a bit baffling. Morris played most of 2008-09 with Ed Jovanovski and, considering where they were starting, they got absolutely thrashed. In spite of starting way more often in the good end of the ice Morris posted terrible Corsi numbers in Phoenix (-164). The team itself was pretty poor (-458 Corsi before the deadline) but when you're on the ice taking the cherry ice time and getting bombed, you're a big part of what's going wrong. Given the offensive context of his ice time, the 0.61 pts/60 is very poor.

In all honesty, this seems like a pretty bad deal for the Bruins. They have moved out a guy that has played two solid seasons on a winning team for the privilege of taking a hit to the cap for three out of the next four years and gaining an extra $40,000 or so bucks for next year. And this was to make room for a guy that's (1) more expensive and (2) possibly not as good as Aaron Ward (also, Aaron Ward is an awesome guy). Now, I'm all for taking advantage of the fact that you can create cap space but if that was the main motivating factor here, it seems like overkill. This series of moves could end up working out for the Bruins, but the fact that they're paying an extra 1M to have Morris over Ward doesn't make sense to me from a cap management perspective. From a PR perspective, this could look pretty bad if Ward plays well in Carolina while Morris struggles in Boston.

Ward to Carolina, Eaves to the Gutter

Earlier today the Boston Bruins traded defender Aaron Ward to the Carolina Hurricanes for forward Patrick Eaves and a 4th round pick. For the Hurricanes the value of the trade is in Aaron Ward's ability to play hockey, and in that respect, it's my opinion that the Hurricanes have made out like bandits. Fantastic trade for them and there's not really much more to say than that. For the Bruins the value of the trade is for cap management. By subtracting Ward the Bruins move 2.5M off of their cap for this coming season. James Mirtle points out that they will need this money in order to sign Phil Kessel to a contract before trading him or another forward for a defenceman in the 4M range. That seems like a pretty contrived way of going about things to me. Why not just keep Ward if the eventual goal is to trade for another defenceman? Especially since (1) Ward played well for the Bruins last year (He led the team in def-off zone faceoffs with 62 extra dzone draws, he was ranked 2nd among defenders in quality of competition, put up a mildly negative of Corsi of -30 but rode strong percentages to a +8 finsish at EV), (2) Ward's contract is very reasonable for a quality top four defender and (3) Ward's contract expires after this season, meaning he will not be a drain on the cap going forward.

I think the reason the Bruins moved Ward along is that Carolina wanted him. If the Bruins are planning on moving a forward from their current group out in favour of a defender, I have a hard time thinking that they'll be able to bring in better value than Ward was providing. As such, I think that the Bruins must actually want to keep the group of forwards they have in tact, including Kessel.

This brings us to Patrick Eaves who may actually be a decent little player (unfortunately for him, that's not why the Bruins got him). Why did they want Eaves? In fairness, they probably didn't (which makes this trade even more amazing from Carolina's perspective) but Eaves' contract does have one very nice feature. As I mentioned earlier this week with regard to the Oilers, some players, when bought out, can create cap space going forward. Patrick Eaves is one of these players and has already been put on waivers by the Bruins. Although he costs $258,333 against the cap in three out of the next four years, in 2010-11 he gives Boston an extra $41,667 to spend. This isn't a huge amount of money by any means as it represents under 0.1% of any projected cap for next year but every little bit is going to count if the cap declines. This doesn't change the fact that he was probably a salary dump, but he is one of the most attractive kind.

This leaves the Bruins with (thanks to capgeek.com here) $950,000 in cap space to start with and $2,091,667 assuming Eaves is bought out (instead of being claimed on waivers). Once the bonuses that are due Blake Wheeler are factored in (and I assume the Bruins will in fact try to make sure that he does not make his bonuses so that they will not have them count against the cap in 2010-11) the Bruins have a total of $4,141,667 left to spend on Phil Kessel and one more low cost defender (assuming they play the whole season with a full 23 man roster). Now, they know their financial situation better than I do with regard to Kessel's contract demands, but that just doesn't seem like quite enough as they'd need to get him signed to something in the range of 3.5M. If they can get Kessel done (and Andrew Ference and Mark Stuart are both ready for consistent top four minutes) then this deal works out pretty well for the Bruins. If they end up moving out more pieces to replace Ward on defense, then this is a bad trade for the Bruins.

Oilers v. Bruins - 1 Samuel 17:8-11, 33-37

Chara stood in the opposing bench and taunted the Oilers. “I am the Bruin champion, but you are only the midgets of MacT. Choose one man to come down here and fight me! If he defeats me, then we will be disheartened and lose the game, but if I defeat him, the momentum will be on our side, and you will be embarassed in your own rink! I laugh in the face of MacT's midgets! Send me a man who will fight me!” When MacT and the Oilers heard this, they were terrified.

"Don't worry about this Bruin" said the Huggy One to MacT. "I'll go fight him."

MacT answered the Huggy One, "You can't go and fight this Bruin. You're too young and inexperienced—and he's been in the fighting business since before you were born."

The Huggy One said, "I've been in the OHL and watched over the boys. Whenever an Ice Dog or Colt came and took a rookie from our midst, I'd go after him, knock him down, and rescue the lamb. If my adversary turned on me, I'd grab him by the throat, wring his neck, and kill him. Ice Dog or Colt, it made no difference—I killed him. And I'll do the same to this Bruin pig who is taunting the Oiler bench. Yahweh, who delivered me from the teeth of the Ice Dog and the limbs of the Colt, will deliver me from this Bruin."

MacT said, "Go. And God help you!"