skip to main |
skip to sidebar
For those unfamiliar with the scoring chance metric:
- A player is awarded a chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score, much like +/-.
- A scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes I'm slightly more generous depending on the movement of the puck and the players - or a screen shot that reaches the goaltender. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are (if they are taken from a dangerous scoring area).
- The graphs are broken down into three game states, EV situations, PP situations (excluding 5v3) and SH situations (also excluding 5v3). At EV I've also included a "scoring chance percentage" which is the number of "chances for" divided by the total number of chances for both teams when a given player is on the ice. The players are all represented by both their jersey numbers and initials.
- Special thanks are due to Dennis King for starting the scoring-chance counting trend and to Vic Ferrari for creating an application that makes the game-to-game tallying much easier. The first table presented below is the scoring chance tally for games 21-30 and the second will be for games 1-30 of the 2009-10 Colorado Avalanche. For games 1-10, look here and for games 11-20, look here.
This segment of games is virtually indistinguishable from the first two in terms of the overall scoring chance percentage for the Avalanche at EV. In games 1-10 they also put up a percentage of 46.3% and in games 11-20 it was 46.0%. At this point the Avalanche seem to have established that they're not going to be a particularly good team at EV and will likely end up somewhere between 46% and 47% on the season. Their record over this ten-game segment was 3-4-3 and is much closer to what I expected from them at the start of the year. In all three segments they've gone 7-1-2, 5-4-1 and now 3-4-3. The first segment looks, to me, like a mirage. Should the Avalanche play .500 hockey from now until the end of the year, it probably won't be good enough to make the playoffs but they'll be in the race until the very end.
This was a rough stretch of games for Wojtek Wolski in terms of EV scoring with no EV goals through all ten games despite taking 25 shots. Despite the lack of goal-scoring he continues to outchance the opposition at EV. If you look at the table below you'll notice that he is in fact the team leader both in scoring chance differential. And on top of that, he continues to be a really fun player to watch!
Another player I wanted to talk about is Chris Durno, a 29-year-old rookie who has managed to put up positive results in a fourth line role. As the Avalanche continue to get healthy it would behoove them to leave Durno in the lineup (so long as the positive results persist) and move out, say, David Koci (+2 -13 and all those penalties... get him out of there) and/or Matt Hendricks (that first M.H. isn't Milan Hejduk, although the real Milan Hejduk hasn't done all that much better).
Finally, only because I lambasted him so much earlier in the year, John-Michael Liles improved substantially in this ten-game segment. He's still getting nothing but soft opposition and he's still not up to 50% at EV but if did have to deal with some injury problems at the start of the year so there is some chance that these numbers will continue to improve.
Now we have the broader picture of a thirty game sample and can really start to see some things crystallizing. The first thing that I notice is that only seven players have managed to play in all 30 games for the Avalanche this year. I follow the Edmonton Oilers and know how injuries can affect a team's performance so it's a real credit to the Avs that they've been able to hang in there with so many players in and out of the lineup.
The most concerning line on the chart probably belongs to Milan Hejduk. He's been a dominant player in the NHL at times in his career but it looks like those times may well be in the past. He's one of those players who has had to deal with some injuries and I would suggest that if the injuries are bothering him he's better off taking the time to make sure they're fully healed. If that's not the problem, that's almost worse news because it means he's just not able to handle tough opposition like he has in the past.
For those who are unfamiliar with the scoring chance metric, a player is given a chance any time someone on the ice has a chance to score. He is given a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score, just like +/-. The graph is broken down into three game states, EV situations, PP situations (excluding 5v3) and SH situations (excluding 5v3). At EV I've also included a "scoring chance percentage" which is the number of "chances for" divided by the the total number of chances for both teams when a given player is on the ice. The players are all represented by their jersey numbers and initials. Special thanks are due to Dennis King for starting the trend towards counting scoring chances and to Vic Ferrari for creating an application that makes the game-to-game tallying much easier. I myself have been keeping tracking scoring chances for the Colorado Avalanche this year. The first table I'll present here is for games 11-20 and the second for the first twenty games the Avalanche have played this year. If you're curious about how the Avalanche did in the first ten games, I wrote about that earlier this year.
The Avalanche compiled a record of 5-4-1 in games 11-20 compared to a record of 7-1-2 in their first ten. Yet, the scoring chances remained about equal in both segments (46.3% in the first ten and 46.0% in the second). Thanks to some wonderful work by JLikens we know that the Avalanche haven't been doing well territorially when the game is tied. In fact, they were the worst team in the league. This tells us two things for sure. Firstly, that the Colorado Avalanche were a very lucky team in the first ten games of the season (or, if you prefer, they were riding a hot goalie and getting timely scoring, same difference as far as I'm concerned, either way, it ain't continuing forever). Secondly, that territorial advantage generally and outshooting in particular is no guarantee that you're going to win games. Still, Tyler Dellow has shown that, more often than not, the team that outshoots wins the game. The same is most certainly true of outchancing and so far the Avalanche haven't been doing much of either. Many have predicted that the Avalanche will not be able to keep up their early pace and you can count me among them. Nonetheless, I expect to see a lot of ten game segments where the Avalanche put together a record between three and six wins. The road back to the playoff bubble will likely be slow and plodding, but they'll eventually get there.
As for some of the specific players, I noted in my first overview that John-Michael Liles isn't a very good hockey player. He only played four games in this segment and he probably was not fully recovered from his injury but that 20% number is just comically bad. If the Avs could pick one contract to jettison surely it would be the one they've given to Liles. The rest of the defenders had a pretty good time of things. Kyle Quincey's numbers aren't particularly good but he has been taking on tough opposition for the first time in his career so some struggles are understandable. Ryan Wilson has been playing well in a depth role which bodes well for his future and Adam Foote had a very nice bounce-back performance from the first segment.
After a strong first segment, Matt Duchene really tailed off here. His season so far reminds me a lot of watching Sam Gagner's first year with the Oilers. A legitimately good start that quickly faded into poor play because he simply isn't ready for the NHL. There's enough skill that he's able to make a breathtaking play every now and again but, for the most part, the kid gets clobbered by players who are bigger, stronger and just plain old better than anything he's seen to this point in his hockey career. He'll be a fantastic player one day, but that day isn't today. Or tomorrow. Or, if he's anything like Gagner, probably not for a while after that.
Ryan O'Reilly also came back a little bit, but not nearly as much as Duchene. Of the two players, I think I've been most impressed with O'Reilly though the junior results and the draft pedigree lead me to believe that Duchene will have the better career. Regardless, what a fantastic draft for the Avalanche this past June.
A lot of the data here is very similar to what we saw in the last ten games. Ryan Wilson is showing promise while John-Michael Liles is showing just how bad a well-paid NHLer can be at EV. But my goodness look at Wojtek Wolski. According to Behind the Net he's faced the fourth toughest competition among Avalanche forwards (although Vic Ferrari has recently given us some helpful reminders about how these numbers can sometimes trick us) and he's been starting pretty consistently in the defensive end of the ice (at the time of writing he has been on the ice for 26 more D-zone draws than O-zone draws which is the second toughest differential among Avs forwards). And he's just ripping the cover off the ball. The best scoring chance percentage on the team, the second best Corsi rate (-6.52/60... my goodness the Avalanche are bad) and tied for 7th in the league in even strength points. That is one very good player.
For those who are unfamiliar with the scoring chance metric a player is awarded a chance any time someone on the ice has a chance to score. He is awarded with a “chance for” if someone on his team has a chance and awarded with a “chance against” if someone on the opposing team has a chance to score. The results are broken down into three game states, EV (even strength), PP (Power Play) and SH (Short-Handed) and the players are organized according to their jersey numbers. At EV I've also included a scoring chance percentage which is simply the number of chances for divided by the total number of chances for both teams when any individual player is on the ice. I've been keeping track of the chances during Avalanche games this year and what follows are the results from the first ten games.
There are several interesting points here that I haven't picked up on while watching each game individually. The first is that no matter how good John-Michael Liles is on the power play he won't be able to make up that kind of EV scoring chance differential so that his overall contribution is a net positive. Thanks to Gabe Desjardins we can also see that Liles has received some of the softest time possible, both in terms of where he's starting his shifts (the offensive zone) and in terms of quality of competition (lowest on the team). I've remarked several times that his absence may be one of the reasons that the Avalanche power play has cooled off. Unfortunately for Avalanche fans, it may also be one of the reasons the Avalanche have improved at even strength as the season has gone on.
Adam Foote is really struggling. The pairing of Hannan and Quincey have been handling the toughest matchups and in terms of zonestart, Foote is again in the middle of the pack (my thanks again to Gabe for his advanced statistical analysis at behindthenet.ca). Yet his results are downright awful. Of the players that have appeared in all ten games he has the worst scoring chance percentage at even strength. Things don't improve all that much once we look at his play on the penalty kill. Foote and Hannan have played almost the exact same number of minutes short-handed, yet Foote has nearly twice as many chances against. I think he may have lost a step.
Wojtek Wolski is the runaway leader in scoring chance percentage at even strength. I find that particularly interesting because coach Joe Sacco seems to have not been impressed with Wolski so far this year. In addition to benching him for a period and a half, Wolski was also removed from the top line. It will be very interesting to see if Wolski sustains a positive chance differential through the rest of the season. This early on it's easy for statistics to be confused about what's going on.
I mentioned them in my last post but it really is astounding just how well Duchene and O'Reilly have played so far this season. Both are well clear of the team average for scoring chance differential and both have been able to contribute offensively. These are two good players already and there's (obviously) a ton of room for both of them to grow and improve. What an excellent draft that could end up being for the Avalanche.
At this point, all I want to say is hopefully the Avalanche are as fun to watch for the next 72 games as they were for the past ten.
