Tuesday, February 17, 2009

PK Save Percentage Update

A couple of months ago I looked at the PK save percentage of the top eight goalies in the league. I figured that it could be instructive to take another look now and see how things have progressed. The idea is that these goalies should have their PK save percentage regress toward the mean. The historical average used (with thanks to Tyler's work) to calculate the goals saved above average is .866.

Pekka Rinne is the only goalie to move above .900 (.919) that has faced over 100 shots (124), so the nice string of results Nashville has picked up is probably set to come back to reality.

Keeping in mind that these goaltenders still all have very good numbers (not surprising given the good starts) they have all regressed, with the exception of the netminder in Calgary and Biron who improved ever so slightly. It goes to show how much lucky/good netminding will impact the goal differential of various teams. With a goal differential of -18 already, New York would be in real trouble if they weren't getting exceptional goaltending on the PK.

Wonderfully, Calgary's results also seem propped up by some suspect numbers. Given their goal differential of +12, they're already probably the weakest team among the top four in the West. Salo's save percentage at EV is .919, good for 30th among goaltenders who have faced at least 500 shots just behind Jason LaBarbera and in a dead heat with Andrew Raycroft. That PK save percentage is coming down.

Best of luck to the Calgary Flames this NHL season.

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