Oilers v. Bruins - 3 John 1-14

Rick Ley, to my good friend Pat whom I love. My good old friend, I pray that you might retain your good health and that your gum will relieve all of the stress imposed upon you by your young and foolish team (who I have come to greatly admire). It gives me great joy to know that you are still faithful to the truth and to the ancient tradition of rolling lines. There is no greater joy than seeing the bottom pairing defenders taking shifts in the third period!

Oilers v. Wild - Revelation 22:8-11

I, Derek, am the one who heard and saw these wondrous things. When I heard and saw all that Penner had said and done, I fell down to worship at his gigantic feet for it was because of him that I had seen these wondrous things. But then he said to me, "You must not do that!

Wild Chances - Games 1 to 10

For those who are unfamiliar with the scoring chance metric, a player is awarded a chance any time someone on the ice has a chance to score. He is awarded a “chance for” if someone on his team has a chance and awarded a “chance against” if someone on the opposing team has a chance to score. The results are broken down into three game states, EV (even strength), PP (Power Play, not including 5v3 situations) and SH (Short-Handed, not including 5v3 situations) and the players are organized according to their jersey numbers. At EV I've also included a scoring chance percentage which is the number of chances for divided by the total number of chances for both teams when any individual player is on the ice. JLikens has been tracking chances for the Minnesota Wild this year and the data that follows is dependent on those results.


The missing game is the October 16th game against the Edmonton Oilers. Although Dennis King is scoring chances for the Oilers and did score that game, I decided to only use JLikens' data here. Having already summed the chances for the Avalanche and Oilers, it's interesting to note that all three teams had a scoring chance percentage between 45 and 46.5. They've all had similar performances in terms of chance volume but I don't need to tell fans of the Wild that it hasn't translated into similar records. Not. Even. Close. The biggest reason for that is the giant gap in save and shooting percentage between the Minnesota and the other two clubs. The Avalanche in particular have been rescued by making their shots (and some shoddy goaltending by teams like the Red Wings) and some top shelf work from Craig Anderson. The Wild, on the other hand had a save percentage under .900 and a shooting percentage well below league norms. If it wasn't for great play on special teams things may have even looked worse. So the percentages should normalize and the Wild should improve. But how much?

Gabe Desjardins points out that over their first nine games the Wild allowed shots that closer to the goalie than any nine game stretch since the lockout. Shot distance is often used as a proxy for shot quality and these chance numbers seem to bear that out. Although we don't have chance numbers for the Wild last season, we do know that their goal and shot differential suggested that they were a pretty good team. So far this season that hasn't been the case. The Wild have done a poor job at even strength generating chances and they've generally been getting outshot as well.

So who's not as bad as he looks? Well, Johnsson and Schultz look terrible by this measure, as they do with most shot differential measures. But as with those other measures these numbers are going to be dependent on things like what kind of opposition you're facing and what end of the rink you're playing in. Last season, coach Jacques Lemaire used that pairing extensively in the defensive zone against the other team's best players. His usage was some of the most extreme in the entire league. I was expecting that to change this year but so far their role is exactly the same, taking many more draws in the defensive end than in the offensive end and taking on the other team's best. It's a virtual guarantee that these guys will be under 50% in scoring chance differential.

And where might the Wild be able to look for hope? I think the Wild need to rely on their best players to be better. Martin Havlat has had a very tough start to the year at EV (43.5%), as has Mikko Koivu (45.0%). These are by far their two best forwards and two players that have had strong outscoring results against the big guns of the NHL for a number of years. I think it's reasonable to think these two players started the year in a slump and will improve. The addition of Chuck Kobasew will help. The goaltending will improve. Pierre-Marc Bouchard is likely not out for the year. They have more home games left than road games. There are good reasons to think this team can pull themselves back to 50.0% in scoring chance percentage the rest of the way. Will that be enough to get them to the playoffs? Only if lady luck is on their side. Uh oh.

Oilers v. Red Wings - Leviticus 14:48-53

But if the fans come to examine the house of their hockey team and the stench of losing has subsided after only one loss, they shall pronounce the house clean because the losing is over. To finish purifying the house, the home team must then take the Red Wings along with some sticks, the correct priestly uniforms and a properly penitent attitude.

Avalanche v. Oilers - Scoring Chances #12

Tm	P	Time	Note	COL						Opponent
COL	1	19:36	Goal	8	22	23	26	27	41	5	10	19	35	71	91	5v5
EDM	1	18:18		5	25	37	41	44	54	12	22	35	41	43	67	5v5
EDM	1	17:27		10	23	26	41	52		5	10	27	35	71		4v4
COL	1	17:08		10	22	23	26	41		5	35	71	83	89		4v4
COL	1	16:07		5	23	26	27	41		10	35	41	43			4v3
COL	1	16:05		5	23	26	27	41		10	35	41	43			4v3
COL	1	11:21		9	22	27	39	40	41	10	19	35	41	43	91	5v5
COL	1	5:39		9	10	39	40	41	52	12	22	35	41	43	67	5v5
COL	1	4:43		8	22	23	26	27	41	27	35	37	77	83	89	5v5
EDM	1	3:02		5	18	25	39	41	44	12	22	35	37	41	67	5v5
COL	2	17:31		9	23	26	27	41	54	10	27	35	37	77		5v4
EDM	2	15:43		9	10	39	40	41	52	5	10	19	35	71	91	5v5
COL	2	10:55		22	25	27	37	41	54	5	27	35	71	83	89	5v5
COL	2	9:22		8	10	23	26	41	52	13	18	35	41	43	46	5v5
COL	2	8:12		5	18	22	39	41	45	12	22	35	37	67	77	5v5
EDM	2	8:04		5	18	22	39	41	45	12	22	35	37	67	77	5v5
EDM	2	7:32		5	37	39	41	52		19	27	35	71	83	89	4v5
EDM	2	6:36		22	27	37	39	41		10	19	35	46	77	91	4v5
EDM	2	5:57		5	26	41	45	52		19	27	35	71	83	89	4v5
COL	2	0:31		8	10	23	26	41	52	10	19	35	41	43	91	5v5
EDM	3	15:46		22	25	37	39	41	52	10	19	35	41	43	91	5v5
COL	3	14:14		18	27	37	41	44	45	5	13	18	35	46	71	5v5
COL	3	13:18		8	10	23	26	41	52	27	35	37	46	77	89	5v5
COL	3	11:45		9	10	25	39	41	52	10	19	35	37	77	91	5v5
COL	3	10:30	Goal	8	22	23	26	27	41	12	22	35	37	41	67	5v5
COL	3	7:11		8	22	23	26	27	41	27	35	37	77	83	89	5v5
EDM	3	5:08		8	10	23	26	27	41	5	10	19	35	37	91	5v5
EDM	3	4:46		8	22	23	26	27	41	10	19	35	37	77	91	5v5
EDM	3	3:00		22	27	37	41	54		10	35	37	77	83		4v4
COL	3	2:43		10	22	37	41	54		10	27	35	37	77		4v4
EDM	3	1:58		8	10	26	41	52		5	12	19	41	91		4v4
COL	3	1:49	Goal	8	10	26	41	52		5	12	19	41	91		4v4
EDM	3	0:48		22	27	39	41	54		27	35	37	77	83	89	4v5

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
5	B. CLARK	15:53	1	3	2:13	2	0	0:55	0	2
8	W. WOLSKI	15:02	8	3	1:23	0	0	1:11	0	0
9	M. DUCHENE	16:27	3	1	2:02	1	0	0:00	0	0
10	K. CUMISKEY	17:12	8	4	1:30	0	0	1:11	0	0
18	B. WILLSIE	9:40	2	2	0:00	0	0	1:04	0	0
22	S. HANNAN	18:54	9	4	0:46	0	0	2:34	0	2
23	M. HEJDUK	14:39	8	3	2:58	3	0	0:37	0	0
25	C. STEWART	12:45	2	3	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
26	P. STASTNY	16:25	9	4	2:37	3	0	0:50	0	1
27	K. QUINCEY	17:13	7	3	2:15	3	0	2:34	0	2
28	D. KOCI	3:46	0	0	0:05	0	0	0:00	0	0
37	R. O'REILLY	14:14	3	3	0:59	0	0	2:08	0	2
39	T. GALIARDI	16:07	4	4	0:00	0	0	2:01	0	3
40	M. SVATOS	10:45	2	1	1:11	0	0	0:00	0	0
41	C. ANDERSON	51:04	16	10	4:00	3	0	4:40	0	4
44	R. WILSON	14:05	1	2	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
45	C. DURNO	9:01	2	1	0:00	0	0	0:07	0	1
52	A. FOOTE	18:51	6	4	0:01	0	0	2:06	0	2
54	D. JONES	11:52	2	2	0:29	1	0	1:22	0	1

Period	Totals		EV		PP		5v3 PP		SH		5v3 SH
1	7	3	5	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	5	5	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0
3	7	6	7	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	19	14	16	10	3	0	0	0	0	4	0	0

Even though I'm tracking Avalanche chances this year I am a fan of the Oilers so this recap is written with a little bit of shame behind it because the Oilers were bad tonight. Terrible. Really, really terrible. Prior to this game the Avalanche had outchanced their opposition three times in eleven games and only seriously outchanced two opponents at EV: the Minnesota Wild and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Looking at the number of standings points those two teams have accumulated so far this year gives a pretty good indication of how well the Oilers played. There were no Oilers that had really good games. If I was forced to choose I might go with the line of Brule, Jacques and Nilsson who played an okay game. Oh, and for some reason Visnovsky didn't take a shift in the last fifteen minutes. I feel safe assuming that he wasn't benched which leads me to expect something bad has happened. What a terrible evening.

From the Avalanche perspective this was a great showing. Wolski was put back up with Stastny and Hejduk and the three of them were dominant all night, the first time the top line has done that all season. Hannan, Quincey and even Foote all posted good numbers and the team both outchanced and outshot their opponents. If there's one thing to say to detractors of the Avalanche who look at the shot totals and wonder about sustainability it's the manner in which the Avalanche have dispensed with some of the weaker clubs. This game and the games against Toronto and Carolina demonstrate that the Avalanche are certainly capable of stomping a mud-hole in inferior opponents which puts them a step up on those clubs for sure. There's still some more work to go before they're on par with the West's best teams but the Avalanche are certainly better than my 14th place pre-season projection.

Finally, I can't believe that Ruutu was suspended for his hit on Darcy Tucker. In tonight's game there were two instances where the Avalanche player delivered a hit from behind to an Oiler and no call was made. It's a dirty play and should be a penalty but as often as not it gets overlooked. In both instances the puck was in the immediate vicinity of the player being hit so it's not as though the refs didn't see the play, they just accept it as part of the game. You know, unless someone gets carted off on a stretcher. Then it's a major penalty and a three game suspension. What a strange league.

Oilers v. Avalanche - Proverbs 13:8-13

A rich man will take criticism for his riches but a poor man is praised in his poverty.

Avalanche v. Red Wings - Scoring Chances #11

Tm	P	Time	Note	COL						Opponent
DET	1	14:32		10	23	26	41	52	54	5	13	35	40	55	96	5v5
COL	1	11:07		10	26	27	40	41	54	5	13	35	40	52	96	5v5
DET	1	10:15		8	22	25	27	37	41	11	22	33	35	44	52	5v5
DET	1	8:19		8	9	10	40	41	52	21	23	28	29	35	51	5v5
DET	1	5:19		22	27	37	39	41		5	13	28	35	40	96	4v5
DET	1	4:40		22	27	37	41	54		5	13	28	35	40	96	4v5
DET	1	4:24		5	10	37	39	41		11	21	29	35	51	55	4v5
DET	1	3:37		22	27	37	39	41		11	21	29	35	51	55	4v5
DET	1	2:48		5	23	41	52	54		5	13	28	35	40	96	4v5
COL	1	0:38		9	23	26	27	40	41	5	18	23	35	43		5v4
DET	2	19:31		9	23	26	27	40	41	11	23	35	51	52		5v4
COL	2	17:53		5	8	25	26	27	41	5	13	35	43	55		5v4
DET	2	16:59		22	23	26	27	41	54	11	28	33	35	44	52	5v5
DET	2	16:53	Goal	22	23	26	27	41	54	11	28	33	35	44	52	5v5
DET	2	12:08		10	37	39	41	52		11	29	35	44	51	55	4v5
DET	2	11:54		10	37	39	41	52		11	29	35	44	51	55	4v5
DET	2	11:46		10	37	39	41	52		11	29	35	44	51	55	4v5
DET	2	11:39		10	37	39	41	52		11	29	35	44	51	55	4v5
COL	2	10:52		22	23	26	27	41	54	13	23	35	40	52	96	5v5
COL	2	5:35	Goal	10	25	37	39	41	52	21	28	29	35	51	52	5v5
DET	2	4:00		5	25	37	39	41	44	11	23	28	33	35	44	5v5
DET	2	3:10		5	37	39	41	52		5	13	28	35	40	96	4v5
DET	2	1:49		10	23	37	41	52		5	13	28	35	40	96	4v5
DET	2	1:36		9	10	23	37	41	52	5	13	28	35	40	96	5v5
COL	2	0:39		5	8	26	41	44	54	21	23	29	35	51	52	5v5
COL	3	19:23		9	23	26	27	40	41	11	23	35	51	52		5v4
COL	3	19:14		9	23	26	27	40	41	11	23	35	51	52		5v4
COL	3	19:06		9	23	26	27	40	41	11	23	35	51	52		5v4
DET	3	16:56		7	22	27	39	40	41	13	22	28	35	40	96	5v5
DET	3	14:35		22	25	27	37	39	41	5	11	33	35	44	55	5v5
DET	3	11:06		9	10	23	41	52	54	22	29	35	44	51	52	5v5
COL	3	10:41	Goal	10	25	37	39	41	52	22	29	35	44	51	52	5v5
DET	3	7:25		22	23	26	27	41	54	13	23	28	35	40	96	5v5
DET	3	6:44		22	23	27	41	54		11	29	35	40	44	55	4v5
COL	3	1:00	Goal	22	23	26	27	37	41	5	13	21	28	51	96	5v5
DET	3	0:24		22	23	26	27	41	54	5	21	28	29	35	51	5v5
DET	3	0:22		22	23	26	27	41	54	5	21	28	29	44	51	5v5

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
5	B. CLARK	12:57	1	1	3:03	1	0	4:16	0	3
7	T. HENSICK	7:38	0	1	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
8	W. WOLSKI	13:40	1	2	3:21	1	0	1:06	0	0
9	M. DUCHENE	11:37	0	3	2:39	4	1	0:38	0	0
10	K. CUMISKEY	10:41	3	4	2:17	0	0	2:56	0	6
15	M. HENDRICKS	1:45	0	0	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
22	S. HANNAN	14:58	2	8	0:00	0	0	6:18	0	4
23	M. HEJDUK	13:17	2	8	3:06	4	1	2:52	0	3
25	C. STEWART	10:27	2	3	2:54	1	0	0:00	0	0
26	P. STASTNY	14:36	4	6	3:27	5	1	2:32	0	0
27	K. QUINCEY	15:50	3	8	3:43	5	1	7:45	0	4
28	D. KOCI	4:46	0	0	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
37	R. O'REILLY	8:28	3	4	2:33	0	0	9:09	0	10
39	T. GALIARDI	9:22	2	3	0:00	0	0	9:03	0	8
40	M. SVATOS	9:29	1	2	2:39	4	1	0:02	0	0
41	C. ANDERSON	39:44	6	13	6:00	5	1	14:13	0	12
44	R. WILSON	13:23	1	1	0:00	0	0	0:02	0	0
52	A. FOOTE	11:41	2	4	0:18	0	0	7:09	0	7
54	D. JONES	14:05	3	7	0:00	0	0	3:04	0	3

Period	Totals		EV		PP		5v3 PP		SH		5v3 SH
1	2	8	1	3	1	0	0	0	0	5	0	0
2	4	11	3	4	1	1	0	0	0	6	0	0
3	5	7	2	6	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	11	26	6	13	5	1	0	0	0	12	0	0

Well what can you say here other than sometimes the best team just doesn't win. The Avalanche created six even strength chances, eleven overall, and they won the game. For the second time against Detroit the winning goal saw the Detroit netminder lose his net and misplay the angle on a shot that probably should have been stopped. The Bertuzzi goal that was called off in the second period was a terrible call as well (but it couldn't have happened to a nicer guy). The refs seemed to realize the injustice that was a Detroit loss in this one and found a way to call Scott Hannan for a penalty after a hilariously obvious dive from Tomas Holmstrom. I'll say it again: the first referee that regularly calls diving penalties is my new favourite. At any rate, after looking tremendous on the PP in the first period, the Wings did nothing at all with that power play or the one that followed when Paul Stastny was called for tripping. It was during this penalty kill that my favourite sequence of the game occurred along the boards. David Jones trapped the puck along the wall and ended up killing what seemed like half a minute there with some help from Foote and Clark. That kind of hard work and willingness to take abuse to preserve a victory are always fantastic to see.

As for the Wings longer term, from what I've seen they should be fine. The start to the season has probably been good for them. They have the same weakness as last year (goaltending) but, unlike last year, they haven't been able to outscore their problem. Maybe this will finally convince them to go out and get someone who has a decent track record over the last couple of regular seasons. They knew there was a need and didn't address it. Why didn't they re-sign Ty Conklin or pick up, oh I don't know, Craig Anderson? When the market left Marty Biron available on the cheap, why didn't they take advantage? It was a terrible blunder in the summer but there's still plenty of time for the Wings to recover. I expect they will.

All of the top players on the Avalanche got bombed at EV. Hejduk, Stastny, Jones, Hannan and Quincey all finished -2 or worse (some of them much worse). The Wings controlled almost the entire game against the Avs big guns and despite their record the two head-to-head matches with the Wings and the game with the Hawks have shown that the Avs are going to need some reinforcements in order to win regularly against the best teams in the Western Conference. But at the beginning of the year, who thought that would be a concern? The fact that it's something worth considering is a victory in and of itself after the year the Avs had last season.