Thursday, October 1, 2009

Scoring Chances Anew

During the summer there were a couple of little informal discussions where a group of fine folks got together and talked about expanding on the scoring chance project that Dennis did last year with the Oilers. I already "spoke" with Dennis and confirmed that he will be doing the scoring chance project again for the Oilers. I myself will be tracking chances for the Avalanche this season in an effort to get all of the Northwest division covered.

Which leaves three teams. The first is Calgary and I seem to recall Kent saying he may take a run at this. Kent? The second is Vancouver and I have a vague recollection of Jonathan saying he might take a stab. Jonathan? The third of course is Minnesota which I believe would fall to JLikens who had expressed in interest in one of Minny or Colorado. JLikens?

And one final favour to ask of Dennis and/or Vic Ferrari. It would be good to learn how to use the program that Dennis was using and Vic created for the upcoming season. Would either of you care to enlighten me (and hopefully us).

Sorry for the "false" linking everyone but I thought it might serve to help you to see the message. And of course, if for some reason you won't be counting the chances this year it's far from the end of the world but what be good to know. Perhaps we can find another crazy person to take your place. Of course, I recognize that this is likely a post that should have gone up a few days ago, but hey, better late than never.


MattM said...

Hey Scott:

Sorry I haven't delivered the zone time tracking app I promised at the start of the summer. I had a very busy beer drinking schedule. But I will get it done eventually. Unfortunately, the fact that its not done yet means we won't get a full season of data, but hopefully fairly soon.

JLikens said...

Hey Scott,

I was in fact planning on counting scoring chances for the Wild this season.

Good to see that you plan on doing the same for the Avalanche.

I think that this type of data is incredibly insightful. The more the better.

Scott Reynolds said...

Sounds good Matt and J. I already scouted the first game for the Avalanche but I haven't put up the results yet because Vic's app really is a helpful timesaver. I know Dennis is doing the Oilers so I should be able to ask him about it tonight.

Dennis said...

Scott: I dare say you already saw this at LT's site but please email me at

I logged the chances for G1 vs Cgy but when I tried using the link from last season, it didn't work. So I imagine Vic will just have to do a little overhaul on it to make it 2010 applicable.

Until he does, I'll log all the games in a notebook and then transcribe them when the link's up and running again.

And it's good to see so more folks taking up the gauntlet and then we'll get a bigger picture.

Vic Ferrari said...

guys, should work. I just did a quick test and it seemed okay.

It will probably be a while before I get around to updating my other scripts on there.

Also, following oilswell's advice, is a simple test to compare two guys counting scoring chances for the same game. As a measure of how similarly they are seeing things.

Vic Ferrari said...

BTW, I don't know if anyone else has checked it. But look at the 20 game rolling averages for the Oilers scoring-chance-% (% of total scoring chances that were had by the Oilers) and goals-% and corsi-%. Magic.

Overall, on the season, the Oilers were 47.7% by corsi and 47.8% by scoring chances.

Scott Reynolds said...

Thanks Vic. Your work in general is awesome, and the app you've created for the scoring chances is a fine example. Obviously you're busy right now but, as always, it's great to hear from you. I may look into the rolling averages sometime in the next couple of months, unless of course someone wants to beat me to it.

Dennis said...

Vic: I just tried out the new link and I posted the results over at Ty's place.

Thanks again, bud!

As for how my efforts match Corsi, that's pretty much by design because as long as a guy gets off a shot from what I deem to be a designated scoring area, then I am counting that as a chance for or against.

Scott Reynolds said...

You and I are the same that way Dennis. For me it needs to be "a clear play directed at the goal" so I don't count the blocked stuff or whiffs but do count the clear-shot misses.

JLikens said...

I've since posted the scoring chance data for the Wild's first game against Columbus.

Thanks for creating that application, Vic. It's an absolute godsend.

Vic Ferrari said...


Of course there wouldn't be many scoring chances in a year that didn't involve a shot directed at net. Every once in a while there is a breakaway without a shot on net, or a guy with a wide open net has the puck bounce over his stick. But how many of those in a season?

The thing is, using just a hadnful of games the relationship is often poor, it's only as you use a bigger chunk of games that they pull together.