Saturday, October 17, 2009

Avalanche v. Maple Leafs - Scoring Chances #6

TmPTimeNoteCOLOpponent
COL119:29
4916404152812152942455v5
COL118:54
82223262741221222951555v5
COL116:09
5910151641212222942455v5
COL113:10
91622274041212222942455v5
COL112:24
492326274137122951
5v4
COL112:21
492326274137122951
5v4
COL112:20
492326274137122951
5v4
COL18:19Goal581016404137294245
5v4
TOR15:52
537394152
1522232941844v5
TOR15:42
537394152
1522232941844v5
TOR15:04
422415455
1215222329844v5
TOR14:16
537394152
78122942454v5
TOR12:50
82223262741815232941845v5
TOR12:48
82223262741815232941845v5
COL10:52Goal91622274154812152942455v5
TOR217:43
8222737415437212951555v5
COL217:08
5103941545537212951555v5
TOR216:27Goal537394152
1215222942454v5
COL215:50
91622274041222232941845v5
COL214:04
459164041221222939
5v4
COL214:03Goal459164041221222939
5v4
COL210:26Goal4374152545528122942455v5
COL28:12
22273741545578212951555v5
TOR26:51
2227373941
1215222942454v5
TOR25:57
515224154
1215222329844v5
TOR25:52
515224154
1215222329844v5
COL23:37
91622274041812152942455v5
TOR21:56
5810232641812152942455v5
COL21:13
9162227404178232942515v5
TOR21:00
9162227404178232942515v5
COL312:08
581037415437122942455v5
COL310:42
9222326274137294245
5v4
COL310:40
9222326274137294245
5v4
COL310:22
9222326274137294245
5v4
COL310:20
9222326274137294245
5v4
COL39:40
581016404128212939
5v4
TOR38:17
5222837415437294555845v5
TOR32:15
273941525455812222942455v5
COL319:38
5823264152812152942455v5


#PlayerEVPPSH
4J. LILES9:18204:44500:3501
5B. CLARK16:36422:47402:3606
8W. WOLSKI13:36342:56200:0000
9M. DUCHENE11:21715:08900:0000
10K. CUMISKEY14:51312:02200:2300
15M. HENDRICKS8:35100:00000:5502
16D. TUCKER12:14712:35400:0000
22S. HANNAN17:41751:15402:2504
23M. HEJDUK12:47236:05700:0000
26P. STASTNY11:00236:12700:1300
27K. QUINCEY17:25756:42700:5901
28D. KOCI6:06010:00000:0000
37R. O'REILLY14:21320:57002:4705
39T. GALIARDI10:12110:14002:4005
40M. SVATOS9:54512:43400:0000
41C. ANDERSON46:231379:141104:2308
52A. FOOTE17:10310:58001:4804
54D. JONES16:30530:26001:3603
55C. MCLEOD12:18310:26000:3501


PeriodTotalsEVPP5v3 PPSH5v3 SH
1965240000400
2876320000400
3722250000000
4000000000000
Totals2415137110000800

The Avalanche came out very strong in the first period of this game and maintained their advantage at EV throughout, something that has been a problem for them in many other instances playing with the lead so far this season. The power play was again awesome at generating scoring opportunities, though the penalty kill lagged behind their performance over the last several outings. The third period was reminiscent of the period they had in their victory at home over the Canucks. If you're a fan of the Avalanche, there was a lot to like tonight. If there is one thing to pick at, it's the continued break-even at best play of the first line. In a game where the Avalanche won the chances battle handily Hejduk, Stastny and Wolski all still ended the night -1 in scoring chances.

The flow of play was interesting in this game as two penalty calls caused pretty big shifts. After the Avalanche had come out strong in the first period (including the first goal of the game), the Maple Leafs got a power play. They didn't do much with the power play but Colorado was no longer controlling the play at EV after it expired. The Avalanche scored again toward the end of the period when Joey MacDonald played an angle incorrectly but overall there were some positives going into the locker room. The Leafs carried the play again early in the second and eventually scored to make it 2-1. Very shortly thereafter Mike Komisarek took a terrible penalty for needlessly punching Darcy Tucker in the head. I've seen Komisarek play a few times over the last couple of seasons and he's rarely impressive. His numbers also look pretty bad. In my opinion he's quite overrated and has a contract that the Leafs will quickly come to regret. At any rate, the Avalanche scored on the power play and the Leafs didn't generate much from there on in.

Tonight was the first time I've been impressed with Matt Duchene since the second game of the year against the Canucks. He was really generating a lot tonight, sending pucks to the front of the net and looking confident. He almost scored a goal on the power play and made a fantastic rush beating (surprise, surprise) Komisarek on a one-on-one that resulted in a pretty good scoring chance. Both he and O'Reilly are nearing the end of their nine-game trial. I think it would be prudent long-term management to send them both back to junior but with the team winning and both players getting significant ice time I could see the Avalanche keeping both for the whole year.

My favourite play of the game was definitely the forearm followed by big splash by Craig Anderson. If things don't work out for him in hockey he can always make a call to the WWE.

6 comments:

Olivier said...

Curious to know whether you had trouble with the montreal game? From what I can tell, Vic's script is thrown of the rails by the bilingual scoresheets or something...

JLikens said...

Interesting. We've now observed two Toronto games where the Leafs have fared much worse in terms of scoring chances at EV as compared to corsi.

In the game that you've scored, the Leafs were +8 in terms of corsi, and yet got outchanced 13-7 at EV.

And in the game scored by Olivier, the Leafs had a corsi advantage of +26(!!), but only outchanced the Habs 17-16 at EV.

While I'm reluctant to make any conclusions in the absence of more data, it appears as though the Leafs might be a team for which corsi and scoring chances do not closely correspond.

Olivier said...

Hmmm.... Watching the sens block 26 of MTL shots tonight, I can only concur...

Scott Reynolds said...

Olivier: Yes I am having trouble entering the data for the Montreal game. I'll probably hold off on publishing it for a while but if worse comes to worse I can always do the work long-hand for this one game.

JLikens: Interesting point. I've noticed that Kent is doing the Flames work recently as well so for every Western Conference team we'll have a total of 16 games scored. It's not perfect but should give us some pretty good clues for things like comparing total shots and scoring chances.

Olivier said...

We also have the 8 (9?) games they play against the habs, which brings it up to 24. How much of a sample do we need?

Scott Reynolds said...

For the Leafs we don't actually have that many games. I think it's a total of 14 (6 v. Mtl, 2 v. Edm, Van, Cgy and 1 v. Min, Col). We've got a lot more teams in the West so we'll have at least 17 (I forgot about the game with Mtl) for all of those.